Thursday, November 19, 2009

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The Recovery in Zero Sum terms

The idea is simple: 70% of the U.S. economy is consumer spending.

The question is: On what will the consumer spend that money?

Gasoline to power our vehicles is one big expense. It is said that oil moving beyond 100 dollars per barrel can hamper recovery. Some say $80 per barrel is a danger sign, and that we were able to absorb the earlier (pre collapse) increase by using home equity like a bank account.

So with home equity annihilated, that gives us less of a margin.

$80 a barrel is that threshold according to Steven Kopits, managing director at energy market forecaster Douglas-Westwood in New York.

As of right now (November, Wednesday 18 2009 - 11:27:23) , oil is.....

tick friggin tock.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

the cure for cancer

...possibly hidden in the vast depths of the Amazon jungle?

i don't think so.

stop eating so much garbage, cut down on your meat consumption. There's your friggin cure.

No Magic Bullet.

Friday, November 13, 2009

in blows the perfect storm

from CNN Money: double dip warning signs

A quick synopsis of these "things that could throw us back into recession".
1. If job losses continue deep into 2010.
2. Flat 2009 Christmas retail sales.
3. Oil in 2010 blasting through $100/barrel threshold.
4. Another year of weak auto sales.
5. Further foreclosures and further downward momentum on home prices.
6. another Bear Market... 20% price drop.

We're in recovery mode, but it's a shaky, fragile thing that can be taken down like a house of cards.

And Big Daddy has already shot his load.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

unemployment rising

I got nothing snarky to add. This is all pretty clear.

Below is a comment from a post at the James Pethokoukis blog at Reuters - 12 reasons unemployment is going to (at least) 12 percent
I’ve had businesses for 30 years.

This is all very simple. Businesspeople are not stupid. They aren’t hiring because:

1. They don’t know what tax increases are coming.

2. They don’t know what new burdensome regulations are coming.

3. They don’t know what changes to the health care system are coming, and if perhaps they will be responsible for everyone’s COBRA or similar for years.

4. They don’t know if it will be harder to fire people in the future.

5. They don’t know if every employee will be allowed to join a union, increasing costs and headaches.

6. They don’t know what new procedures will be invented to upend the bond markets completely, overturning centuries of settled law.

7. They don’t know if Washington will unilaterally cut their compensation.

8. They don’t know if cap-and-trade will double their energy costs.

And on and on and on and on and on and on and on.

I can’t imagine hiring anyone until all this nonsense shakes out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see unemployment above 13%.

I can hold off generating taxable activity a lot longer than Democrats can retain Congress, that’s for damn sure.
- Posted by Chester White

Monday, November 9, 2009

mysterious correlation-ey

I was looking at New York Times interactive maps and spotted, what appears to my eyes, a high correlation between murder density and those who voted against Bloomberg.

What do you see? Clear as day, right?

Where the murder clusters, votes AGAINST Bloomberg clusters also.

click for nytimes interactive Homicide map (might require free registration to view)

click for nytimes interactive '09 Voting Results map (might require free registration to view)

this Market will never ever ever again crash. NEVER

speculate, confiscate, sell.
one millisecond at a time.
yeah baby yeah!!!

Friday, November 6, 2009

volatility much?

Gold is off the charts. Safe haven during during a Democrat Tax-n-Spend dollar-weakening frenzy?

Dollar weakening means U.S. manufactured goods will have more international appeal and interest rates will stay low... so equities are holding.

Joblessness and discontent are still rising and will continue that trend. Currently: 10.2% official "adjusted", 17% actual.

2010 = Bye bye Dems
2012 = Hello Reaganomics II

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

follow the money

Mike Bloomberg just won a 3rd term as Mayor of New York city after spending about 100 million dollars.

Obama  bought  won the Presidency for about three-quarters of a BILLION dollars.

Power is as Power spends.